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EMC Corp.$23.66($0.02)(0.08%)

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A Note About The Problems With The P/E

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 Posted by: jamesrobinsonua on Friday, January 16, 2004 at 1:29:00 AM

Currently the P/E is around 150 as you all know. The problem doesn't lie with the current P/E ratio, but with the forward P/E ratio.

The Forward P/E ratio is currently 45.48 given the estimate for the last quarter is accurate.

The Industry Average P/E ratio is 37.4, so realitivly speaking the stock is roughly in-line with the industry (there have to be outliers above and below the average).

If (and I say if) the eps for the last quarter beat estimates like I believe will happen given IBM's latest relase, the EPS will have to be revised upward for the next quarter and the fiscal year meaning that the forward P/E will wind up probably below the industry average leading to an increase in the price of the stock.

Lets say the EPS for the fiscal year is revised upwards to .40 given a growing economy.

This would put the forward P/E ratio at 37.87 which is even more in line with the current industry average.

If EMC is "meant" to have a P/E of 45.48 then the stock price would rise to $18.19. Now keep in mind this is almost "far-fetched". EMC would have to see spectacular growth to have the EPS revised up that high, but hey its possible.

Maybe the earnings for the last quarter will be as good as IBM's.

Good Luck to everyone.
James Robinson




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